Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) reaches all-time high in June 2022

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, rose 1.7% to an all-time high in June from May, rising for the second consecutive month, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS). From June 2021 to June 2022 the index rose 4.6% (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

The level of for-hire freight shipments in June measured by the Freight TSI (142.4) reached its all-time high (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000.

The May index was revised to 140.0 from 140.1 in last month’s release. The April index was revised down slightly while monthly numbers for January and February were revised up slightly.

BTS is withholding the scheduled release of the passenger and combined indexes for June. The passenger index for June is a statistical estimate of airline passenger travel and other components based on historical trends up to May 2022. The statistical estimate does not fully account for the rapidly changing impacts of the coronavirus on the historical trend. Air freight for June is also a statistical estimate. Since air freight makes up a smaller part of the freight index, the freight TSI is being released as scheduled with the air freight estimate included.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal movement, which enables month-to-month comparisons.

Analysis: The Freight TSI reached a new all-time high in June, increasing 1.7% in May due to seasonally adjusted increases in trucking, rail carloads, air freight, and water, while rail intermodal and pipeline declined.

The June increase came in the context of mostly negative results for several other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index declined by 0.2% in June, reflecting decreases of 0.5% in manufacturing and 1.4% in utilities, while mining grew by 1.7%. Housing starts were down 2.0% while personal income increased by 0.6%.

The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was down 3.1 points to 53.0, indicating slowing growth in manufacturing.

Although the June Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel and other components, the May index is now being released. The index increased 2.9% from April to May following an increase of 2.9% in April. Seasonally adjusted air passenger, rail passenger and transit all grew.

The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level in March 2020 —the first month of the pandemic— for twelve months in a row but remains below its pre-pandemic level (February 2020) for the 27th consecutive month.

Trend: The June freight index increase was the ninth month-over-month increase in ten months, for a total increase of 6.0% since August 2021. The June Freight TSI is 13.6% above the pandemic low in April 2020; it has increased in 18 of the 26 months since that low. The index is now 0.3% above its previous record level of 142.0 set in August 2019, after increasing in 19 of the 34 months since that earlier peak.

Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in June 2022 (142.4) were 49.9% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (95.0). The June 2022 level reached its all-time high.

Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were up 3.7% in June compared to the end of 2021 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are up 12.8% in the five years from June 2017 and are up 25.0% in the 10 years from June 2012 (Table 5).

Same month of previous year: June 2022 for-hire freight shipments were up 4.6% from June 2021 (Tables 4, 5).

2nd quarter changes: The freight TSI rose 2.5% in the 1st quarter and rose 1.1% in the 2nd quarter (Table 6).

The TSI has three seasonally adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the July 2022 index is scheduled for September 15, 2022.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database.

Table 1: Freight Transportation Services Index since December 2021 Percent Change from Previous Month(Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

	Freight
	Index	Percent change
December	137.3	0.1
January	139.0	1.2
February	140.0	0.7
March	140.8	0.6
April	139.5	-0.9
May	140.0	0.4
June	142.4	1.7

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 1A: Annual High and Low Points in Freight Transportation Services Index, 2009-2022

Year	Month of peak	Value at peak	Month of low	Value at low
2009	December	101.8	April	95.0
2018	November	139.7	January	131.7
2019	August	142.0	December	136.8
2020	January	136.8	April	125.3
2021	April	137.3	February	133.5
2022 (thru June)	June	142.4	January	139.0

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2019-2022Percent change from previous month

	2019	2020	2021	2022
	Percent change	Percent change	Percent change	Percent change
January	0.8	0.0	1.4	1.2
February	-0.6	-0.1	-2.5	0.7
March	0.2	-1.0	1.8	0.6
April	0.6	-7.3	1.0	-0.9
May	0.2	1.4	-0.6	0.4
June	-0.3	1.6	-0.3	1.7
July	0.9	3.7	-1.1
August	1.4	-1.0	-0.3
September	-2.3	0.5	0.7
October	-0.2	0.5	1.0
November	0.1	-0.4	0.5
December	-1.2	1.4	0.1

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2019-2022

	2019	2020	2021	2022
January	138.8	136.8	136.9	139.0
February	137.9	136.6	133.5	140.0
March	138.2	135.2	135.9	140.8
April	139.0	125.3	137.3	139.5
May	139.3	127.1	136.5	140.0
June	138.9	129.1	136.1	142.4
July	140.1	133.9	134.6
August	142.0	132.5	134.2
September	138.7	133.1	135.1
October	138.4	133.7	136.4
November	138.5	133.1	137.1
December	136.8	135.0	137.3

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 3: Freight Transportation Services Index Year-to-Date Change, 2013-2022Percent change to June from December of the previous year

Year	Freight
2013	3.7
2014	1.7
2015	-1.1
2016	2.2
2017	1.1
2018	2.5
2019	0.9
2020	-5.6
2021	0.8
2022	3.7

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-YearPercent Change in the June Freight TSI (Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

	June Freight TSI	Percent change from same month previous year
2013	116.5	2.3
2014	119.8	2.8
2015	121.8	1.7
2016	123.3	1.2
2017	126.2	2.4
2018	137.2	8.7
2019	138.9	1.2
2020	129.1	-7.1
2021	136.1	5.4
2022	142.4	4.6

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 5: Freight Transportation Services Index from Previous Years Percent Change to 2022 (June to June)

Since June . . .	Duration in years	Freight TSI percent change to June 2022
2021	1	4.6
2020	2	10.3
2019	3	2.5
2018	4	3.8
2017	5	12.8
2016	6	15.5
2015	7	16.9
2014	8	18.9
2013	9	22.2
2012	10	25.0

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 6: Freight Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 2013-2022Percent change from the last month of the previous quarter

Year	1st quarter (Jan-Mar) percent growth	2nd quarter (Apr-Jun) percent growth	3rd Quarter (Jul-Sep) percent growth	4th Quarter (Oct-Dec) percent growth
2013	3.3	0.4	0.2	0.9
2014	2.0	-0.2	1.8	1.1
2015	-0.1	-1.1	1.4	-2.3
2016	0.0	2.2	-0.6	1.9
2017	0.3	0.8	2.4	3.6
2018	1.4	1.1	1.0	-0.6
2019	0.4	0.5	-0.1	-1.4
2020	-1.2	-4.5	3.1	1.4
2021	0.7	0.1	-0.7	1.6
2022	2.5	1.1