Shippers plan for 2026 with confidence and caution

As supply chains head into 2026, shippers are signaling cautious optimism tempered by real-world constraints, according to new survey findings released by Averitt. The company surveyed and interviewed more than 1,000 supply chain, logistics, and procurement professionals as part of its annual State of the North American Supply Chain Survey for the 11th year in a row.

The results show that while confidence remains, expectations have become more measured.

When asked about projected shipping volumes for the coming year, 59% of shippers expect volumes to increase, marking the lowest level of positive sentiment recorded in the past decade. At the same time, the share of respondents projecting no change rose sharply to 37%, while those expecting volume declines fell to just 3.6%.

Taken together, the findings suggest shippers are not anticipating a downturn—but are recalibrating expectations amid tighter capacity, higher execution risk, and ongoing uncertainty.

Tariffs continue to be a significant factor shaping that mindset. When asked about the impact of tariffs experienced during 2025, more than half of respondents (50.7%) reported a negative impact on their operations. Only 7.3% reported a positive impact, while 42.1% indicated uncertainty—signaling that tariffs remain a persistent operational challenge rather than a resolved issue.

“Shippers aren’t pulling back, but they are planning differently,” said Kent Williams, executive vice president of sales and marketing at Averitt. “What we’re seeing is confidence with guardrails. Organizations still expect demand to hold, but they’re building strategies around execution risk, tariff pressure, and reduced margin for error rather than assuming ideal conditions.”

The full findings are detailed in Averitt’s 2026 State of the North American Supply Chain white paper, which explores how shippers are adjusting volume expectations, managing tariff exposure, and rethinking execution strategies in a more constrained environment.