Beyond peak season: Rhenus signals new era of volatile shipping demand

The traditional concept of a predictable peak shipping season is becoming increasingly obsolete, as global trade flows shift toward more volatile and irregular demand patterns. According to Rhenus, the market is no longer defined by a single seasonal surge, but by multiple, overlapping demand waves that are reshaping capacity dynamics and freight rates.

This structural shift is already visible across major trade lanes. Vessel utilization from Asia to Europe, North America, and Oceania is currently running at very high levels, as demand is brought forward at different points in the year. As a result, space availability is tightening, and freight rates are increasing. Data from the Shanghai Container Freight Index shows rises of approximately 81% on Asia–North Europe and 133% on Asia–US West Coast between week 1 and week 24.

Rather than following a clear seasonal pattern, volumes are being driven by a combination of triggers. Restocking activities, forward bookings ahead of anticipated cost increases, and major retail cycles, including Amazon Prime Day and other mid-year campaigns, are prompting companies to move shipments earlier and more frequently throughout the year. This is leading to more fragmented and less predictable demand flows.

At the same time, ongoing disruptions and uncertainties in the Middle East continue to reshape supply conditions. Vessel rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope is extending transit times, effectively reducing available capacity in circulation by tying up vessels for longer periods. In combination with already high utilization, this is limiting flexibility in the system and amplifying rate volatility.

“The idea of a ‘peak season’ is becoming outdated,” said Renee Toh, VP – Global Ocean Freight of the Rhenus Group. “Instead of one predictable surge, we are seeing demand fluctuate in multiple waves across the year. Volumes are less consistent, more reactive, and increasingly driven by external factors, from disruptions to cost expectations and retail cycles. Calling it an ‘early peak season’ oversimplifies what is actually a structural shift in how global trade flows.”

In this environment, even short-term demand increases can quickly translate into sharper rate movements, as the market has less capacity buffer to absorb fluctuations.

For Rhenus, these developments highlight a fundamental change in how supply chains need to be managed. The focus is shifting away from planning around fixed seasonal cycles toward continuously adapting to changing market signals. This includes securing capacity earlier, optimizing container utilization, diversifying transport options, and strengthening visibility across the supply chain.

“The idea that supply chains have returned to a stable rhythm no longer reflects reality,” added Toh. “Businesses need to operate in a constant state of adjustment, where flexibility and real-time insight are essential to staying ahead of demand shifts and disruptions.”