Russia sees export price for Its oil increasing through 2026

Russia’s government expects steady growth in the export price of its crude oil during the next three years despite energy sanctions imposed by Western nations and their allies, according to documents seen by Bloomberg.

The government sees the average price this year being $62.70 per barrel, according to the macroeconomic forecast through 2026 presented to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin on Friday.

Those barrels may trade at an average of $66.30 next year, $67.90 in 2025 and $69.80 in 2026, the documents say. The estimate for 2026 is an 11% jump from that for 2023.

The media service for the Russian government didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment sent Friday outside normal working hours.

Oil is a key source of revenue for a federal budget burdened by war in Ukraine. Western countries and their allies have imposed several waves of sanctions in an effort to curb the flows and reduce their value, thereby handicapping the Kremlin’s ability to finance its military aggression.

The Group of Seven industrialized nations imposed a price cap on Russian crude and petroleum products to stop the oil from being transported on Western ships — and with Western insurance — unless it was priced under the threshold.

However, Russia has been able to assemble a shadow fleet of ships big enough to transport crude to buyers with less need for services from companies in G-7 countries. As a result, Russia’s flagship Urals crude blend breached the $60-per-barrel cap in July. 

The government’s preliminary oil projections come just days after senior US Treasury official Eric Van Nostrand praised the efficiency of the price caps. The restrictions allowed energy buyers across the world to negotiate bigger discounts for Russian supplies, he said in an interview to Bloomberg.

Russia also sees production shrinking to 523 million tons next year from 527 million tons this year, according to the documents. Next year’s projection is equivalent to 10.47 million barrels a day, Bloomberg calculations show.

The country has pledged to keep its oil production curbed through 2024 in a move to stabilize the market. Output is forecast to increase to 530 million tons in 2025 and then 540 million tons in 2026.

Crude exports are projected to shrink to 240 million tons next year from 247 million tons this year. They should rebound to 247 million tons in 2025 and then 257 million tons in 2026, according to the documents.