FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index improves in January but remains negative

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for January improved to -1.41 from the December reading of -4.3, indicating a less challenging financial environment for carriers. Freight rates and financing costs were not as negative as they had been during the prior month, although fuel costs were not as favorable as they had been, either. The outlook for trucking conditions has improved but remains in negative territory for most of the year.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “Our forecast for freight volume is modestly stronger, but excess capacity continues to temper our expectations for a market revival. Absent a triggering event like a surge in fuel prices, for example, we see a continued gradual drain of capacity that will not begin to shift market fundamentals for months. The eventual rebound also might be uneven as the first signs of improvement could slow the exit of excess capacity and delay a sustained recovery.”

Details of January’s TCI are found in the March issue of FTR’s Trucking Update, published on February 29. Additional commentary in the March edition discusses how a stronger outlook for construction swung FTR’s 2024 truck loadings forecast by nearly a full percentage point. The Trucking Update includes data and analysis on load volumes, the capacity environment, rates, and the economy.

The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market. These conditions are: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. The individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. Conversely, a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings in either direction suggest significant operating changes are likely.