FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index rises to a record in May

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index in May jumped to 20.4 – its strongest level ever due mostly to highly favorable freight rates for carriers. The April index reading had been 11.6. Prior to May, the most favorable TCI reading for carriers had been 16.8 in February 2021. FTR expects the index to settle in the coming months but to remain solidly positive.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “A record high for the TCI obviously is notable, but it is also a good occasion for us to acknowledge the obvious: Robust market conditions have developed recently and rapidly after several years of tough going for most of the trucking industry. Many carriers have a long way to go to repair their finances and return to consistent and acceptable margins.

“Also, except for a few pockets of freight strength due largely to massive investment in artificial intelligence, the sharp recovery in freight rates is principally a function of already-tight capacity followed by a series of disruptions, including pressure on foreign drivers and, more recently, the need for fuel cost recovery. Broad-based volume growth remains elusive, and the market rebound likely will hit a ceiling soon unless freight demand strengthens considerably.”

Details of the May TCI are found in the July issue of FTR’s Trucking Update, published June 30. The July issue includes discussion on how increased regulatory enforcement pressure could affect the market in the coming months. The Trucking Update includes data and analysis on load volumes, the capacity environment, rates, and the economy.

The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market. These conditions are: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. The individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. Conversely, a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings in either direction suggest significant operating changes are likely.