FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index basically neutral in August

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) improved to an essentially neutral 0.3 in August from -1.03 in July. The gain was due primarily to less challenging freight rates. Although utilization was the most positive factor, it was not very strong.

While the near-term TCI outlook is in similar range as August’s reading, we forecast improved market conditions in 2026 and 2027.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “The potential for a capacity-driven recovery in trucking has risen over the past month due to severe restrictions imposed on issuing and renewing commercial driver’s licenses for foreign drivers. However, despite some anecdotal reports about various effects of a crackdown on immigrant drivers, available data has yet to show a substantial impact on market conditions. We expect pressure on foreign drivers to be a significant factor for capacity in the coming months, but many questions remain about the scope and speed of the effects of tighter CDL and English language enforcement on the truck freight market.”

Details of the August TCI are found in the October issue of FTR’s Trucking Update, published September 30. The October issue included commentary on data suggesting that driver capacity is tighter than previously indicated and on emerging factors – especially pressure on foreign drivers – that could lead to further tightening. Trucking Update includes data and analysis on load volumes, the capacity environment, rates, and the economy.

The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market. These conditions are: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. The individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. Conversely, a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings in either direction suggest significant operating changes are likely.