FTR Shippers Conditions Index turns slightly negative in February due mostly to fuel

FTR’s January Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) fell into negative territory in February for the first time since September. In both months the culprit was the same: Diesel prices. The SCI declined to -1.4 from January’s reading of 3.4. Fuel costs aside, the SCI would have been positive in February, although other elements of shippers’ market conditions deteriorated slightly as well. The outlook remains for index readings close to neutral in 2024.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “Although February might prove to be a near-term outlier due to the 21-cent spike in diesel prices, the days of favorable market conditions for shippers are numbered. By the first quarter of 2025, we expect a steady but incremental tightening of the truck market to yield a modestly tougher environment for shippers. However, we do not see anything like 2021 or 2018 on the horizon.”

The April FTR’s Shippers Update, published April 5 provides a detailed analysis of the factors affecting the February Shippers Conditions Index and provides the forecast for this index through February 2025. Additional commentary in the April issue explores the potential factors driving a recovery in broker pricing and examines how the Port of Baltimore’s problem might affect the rail and intermodal sectors.

The Shippers Conditions Index tracks the changes representing four major conditions in the U.S. full-load freight market. These conditions are: freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel price. The individual metrics are combined into a single index that tracks the market conditions that influence the shippers’ freight transport environment. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. A negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. The index tells you the industry’s health at a glance.