WTO downgrades global trade growth forecast to 0.5% for next year

The World Trade Organization on Tuesday sharply lowered its 2026 forecast for global merchandise trade volume growth to 0.5%, citing expected delayed impacts from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs.

It marks a significant revision down from its previous estimate in August of 1.8% growth.

"The outlook for next year is bleaker ... I am very concerned," Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told reporters in Geneva.

However, she said the world trading system is showing resilience, with the rules-based multilateral system providing some stability amid trade turmoil.

For 2025, the WTO upgraded its forecast for global trade volume to 2.4%, from 0.9% previously, driven primarily by the front-loading of imports into the United States ahead of tariff hikes and growth in the trade of AI-related goods.

Trump's tariff decisions since he took office in January have shocked financial markets and sent a wave of uncertainty through the global economy.

On August 7, Trump imposed higher tariffs on imports from dozens of countries, leaving major trade partners like Switzerland, Brazil and India scrambling for a better deal, while the EU struck a deal that set duties at 15% on most imports.

Overall world merchandise trade volume growth is expected to slow from 2.8% last year to 2.4% this year and 0.5% next year.