WorldACD Air cargo trends for the past 5 weeks (wk 41): Rates and tonnages stabilize in global negative trend

Air cargo prices and tonnages appeared to stabilize, week over week, in the second full week of October, but the overall trend for the last five weeks is clearly negative, the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data reveal, with no signs yet of a significant fourth-quarter (Q4) peak season.

Looking at week 41 (October 10 - 16) alone, worldwide chargeable weight remained stable compared with the previous week, based on the more than 350,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data. However, comparing weeks 40 and 41 with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W), tonnages declined -8%, while average worldwide rates declined -5%, in an almost flat capacity environment (-1%).

Across that two-week period, tonnages from all the main global origin regions decreased, with double-digit drops ex-Asia Pacific (-13%) and ex-Middle East & South Asia (-11%), but also notable declines were seen outbound from Europe (-6%) and outbound from North America (-4%). On a lane-by-lane basis, tonnages from Asia Pacific to all regions (incl. intra-Asia Pacific) were substantially down, partially impacted by the Golden Week in the first week of October, with average rates also down from this key export region – including a -11% rates decline from Asia Pacific to North America, compared with the previous two weeks.

Furthermore, significant tonnage decreases were also recorded from Middle East & South Asia to Asia Pacific and to Europe (-14%), from Europe to Asia Pacific (-11%) and to Central & South America (-10%), and from North America to Europe (-8%), on a 2Wo2W basis.

Year-on-Year perspective

Comparing the overall global market with this time last year, chargeable weight in weeks 40 and 41 was down -16% compared with the equivalent period in 2021, despite a capacity increase of +6%. Notably, volumes ex-Asia Pacific are -26% below their strong levels this time last year, and Middle East & South Asia origin tonnages are -24% below last year.

Capacity from all of the main origin regions, with the exception of Asia Pacific (-10%) and Central & South America (-3%), is significantly above its levels this time last year, including double-digit percentage rises from Europe (+17%), Africa (+15%) and North America (+10%).

Worldwide rates are currently -17% below their level this time last year at an average of US$3.27 per kilo.

For more details, please refer to the attached WorldACD weekly report.