US targets Chinese vessels, forcing fleet reshuffle - Rystad Energy’s Gas and LNG Market Update

Liquefaction outages in Asia and Europe were not enough to raise gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices significantly. Despite the non-peak gas consumption season, spot prices remain significantly higher than long-term LNG contract levels.

US
The United States Trade Representative announced that additional port fees will be applied to Chinese vessel owners and operators when loading from the US, although LNG vessels may be an exception for most of this year.

If additional port fee costs are applied to LNG vessels, Chinese vessels are then likely to be diverted away from US LNG projects, meaning that the Atlantic Basin could gradually have less shipping availability relative to that of Asia.

In 2024, PetroChina had the greatest number of loadings in US-LNG projects compared to other Chinese charterers.

Asia

Asian LNG prices for June, the new front-month price since 16 April, fell to around $12 per MMBtu, despite several production outages in the region while derivatives for both July and August fell 3.5% and 3.7% week-on-week, respectively.

Chevron-operated Wheatstone is currently undergoing planned maintenance at one train that is expected to last for a week.
Malaysia LNG’s Satu and Dua projects are producing less than capacity due to technical problems, though operator Petronas has been attempting to resume production since 18 April.
As mentioned in Rystad Energy's previous note, Ichthys LNG continues to operate below capacity.

LNG inventory for major power utilities in Japan fell 1% week-on-week to 2.11 million tonnes (Mt) on 20 April, following no change in the previous week between 6 April and 13 April at 213 Mt.
These levels are 2-3% lower than the 2.18 Mt at end-April 2024, but close to the 2020-2024 average of 2.14 Mt for end-April.

Europe

Dutch Title Transfer (TTF) prices fell 3.3% week-on-week to $11.3 per MMBtu on 23 April, while European LNG prices fell 4.5% week-on-week to approximately $10.8 per MMBtu.

This was despite planned maintenance at Snohvit LNG and Norwegian pipeline flows decreasing 1.5% week-on-week to 330.1 million cubic meters.

Forecasts for major demand hubs in Europe point to above-average temperatures until the first week of May.

Sellers with US-origin LNG may consider sending their cargoes to Asia as economics have improved for delivery to the Asia-Pacific region, though this is subject to change during the long voyage from US Gulf Coast to Asia around the Cape of Good Hope route.