UPS profit misses estimates on shifting US trade policy

United Parcel Service posted quarterly profit marginally below estimates on Tuesday and did not provide a full-year revenue forecast again, deepening concerns around the impact of changing U.S. trade policies on the delivery giant.

Its shares fell nearly 4% premarket on Tuesday, even as the company's second-quarter revenue surpassed expectations.

"A combination of lower-than-expected overall and U.S. Domestic margins as well as fully rescinded guidance is likely to be viewed unfavorably," Evercore ISI analyst Jonathan Chappell said.

UPS reported an adjusted consolidated operating margin of 8.8% for the quarter, while U.S. domestic adjusted operating margin was 7%.

The company did not provide an annual revenue or operating profit outlook for a second straight quarter, citing ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. In its last forecast, issued in January, UPS projected 2025 revenue of $89 billion.

In a hit to demand, the White House in May began collecting tariffs on shipments under $800 from China that were previously duty-free, though the "de minimis" levies were later reduced to 54% from 120% as part of a trade truce.

Experts warn the exemption removal may hit volumes harder than expected for UPS, as consumers are likely to cut discretionary purchases from low-cost sellers such as Temu and Shein, reducing shipments on the company's key China-U.S. routes.

UPS and rival FedEx are seen as bellwethers for the health of the global economy as they serve clients across industries and geographies.

Atlanta-based UPS reported consolidated revenues of $21.2 billion, above Wall Street estimates of $20.86 billion, helped by strength in its international segment, as importers likely rushed to front-load finished goods to reduce the impact of the tariff changes.

However, revenue in its U.S. domestic segment declined to $14.08 billion from $14.20 billion, pressured by a sluggish recovery in retail sales and industrial activity.

The company reported adjusted net income of $1.55 per share for the quarter ended June 30, below estimates of $1.56 per share, according to data compiled by LSEG.

UPS has been shuttering hundreds of facilities and slashing thousands of jobs as part of a sweeping overhaul, its largest ever, aimed at generating $3.5 billion in cost savings in 2025.

In April, the company announced plans to cut 20,000 jobs due to the shedding of half its shipping volume from Amazon.com, its largest customer.

UPS in July said it was offering voluntary buyouts to its unionized full-time drivers for the first time.