U.S. Transportation infrastructure 2026 outlook is stable despite tariff ambiguity and rising costs

This report does not constitute a rating action.

S&P Global Ratings' view of business conditions and credit quality across the U.S. not-for-profit transportation infrastructure enterprise (TIE) sector for 2026 is stable, according to "U.S. Not-For-Profit Transportation Infrastructure 2026 Outlook: Green Lights Ahead Despite Tariff Ambiguity And Growing Capital Programs," published today.

If economic growth is lower than current forecasts and transmits to many GDP-linked TIE activity metrics (enplanements, containers, and vehicular traffic) as fixed costs continue to rise, we anticipate a tempering of financial metrics that have supported recent positive rating trends, particularly for toll road and airport operators.

We believe activity levels across most modes of transportation will continue to steadily increase from 2026-2027, with average annual growth of 1.6% for enplanements, 4.5% for transit ridership, 2.4% for port containers, and 3.0% for tolled transactions.

"We expect the TIE sector will largely demonstrate continued resilience amid federal policy shifts and ambiguity related to tariffs, changing transportation funding and grant priorities, and the spend-down of federal support by transit operators," said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Kurt Forsgren.

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