U.S. overtakes Brazil in corn exports to China ahead of end-Q1 2026

Chinese corn imports declined to approximately 3.8M mt in 2025, down from 8.4M mt in 2024. Of this, around 2.5M mt originated from Brazil (Panamax: ~2.0M mt vs. 1.78M mt in 2024), while imports from the U.S. totaled 169k mt (Panamax: ~153k mt vs. 1.36M mt in 2024). This contraction aligns with China's policy direction over the past three years. The focus has been on increasing domestic self-sufficiency. As such, the recent decline in imports is not primarily driven by trade tensions, but rather reflects a policy-driven agricultural transformation underway in Beijing.

With imports declining and domestic output rising, China's evolving grain policy is expected to have far-reaching implications for major exporters, including Brazil, the U.S., and Ukraine. Looking ahead, China is likely to continue prioritizing internal efficiency, requiring global corn exporters to adapt to a lower level of Chinese import demand.

While Brazil was the primary supplier of corn to China in 2025, early Q1 2026 data show the U.S. has regained market share and moved ahead by late March.