Trump’s tariff pause does little to lower overall tariff rates, Yale researchers say

President Donald Trump's rollback of some of the steep tariffs he has imposed has done little to lower the average import duty rate from the elevated levels to which his wave of levies had driven them, researchers from Yale University said on Thursday.

Trump on Wednesday unveiled a 90-day pause on the highest rates he had imposed under the two-tiered global tariffs he had announced a week earlier. Under the hiatus - meant to allow for countries to bargain for a permanently lower rate - import taxes on goods from most U.S. trading partners will reset to 10%. At the same time, though, he increased his retaliatory "reciprocal" rate on China to 125%, and 25% tariffs on many Canadian and Mexican imports and on imported autos, steel and aluminum also remain in effect.

"Consumers face an overall average effective tariff rate of 25.3%, the highest since 1909," the Yale Budget Lab wrote. "This is only slightly different from where the effective rate was before the late-April 9 announcement. Even after consumption shifts, the average tariff rate will be 18.1%, the highest since 1934."

The Budget Lab said its estimates reflect the effects all U.S. tariffs and foreign retaliation implemented in 2025 through April 9, including the revised April 9 tariffs.