Trade policy shifts may disrupt trajectory for U.S. Transportation

Trade policy changes from the Trump administration could create some speed bumps in an otherwise neutral sector outlook for U.S. airports, toll roads and ports, according to Fitch Ratings during a webinar held earlier this week.

Seth Lehman said that 2024 represented the third straight year in which infrastructure upgrades exceeded downgrades. That said, transportation projects have their outliers with Lehman pointing to the JFK New Terminal One project’s ability to stay on schedule and budget versus the struggles of LAX’s APM project.

Two weeks into the new administration and much has already happened on the policy front. Most vulnerable to policy movement appears to be ports, which Lehman said is in the ‘bulls eye’ of higher tariffs. That said, negative rating actions are unlikely with over 90% of Fitch-rated ports maintaining a Stable Rating Outlook. Developments around the Panama Canal could be an area of disruption for maritime trade although improved growth in cruise activity is a bright spot.

While optimism and positive momentum reign supreme for toll roads, tariffs will have a negative impact on GDP growth, which toll road performance remains closely tethered to according to Scott Monroe. Mass deportation of undocumented immigrants could precipitate a significant slowdown in labor force growth with Fitch projecting a loss of as much as 1.3 million workers. Additionally, NYC’s congestion pricing program could be what Monroe called ‘the canary in the coalmine’ for possible future congestion pricing programs throughout the country.

Airports seem to be most unaffected by the new administration’s policy changes. Full pre-pandemic recovery is in place with mildly positive increases in store for this year, according to Jeffrey Lack. While airline use and lease agreements are increasingly equipped with enhanced cost recovery and greater liquidity, Lack said that increasing debt burdens without mitigants could present itself as a risk. 2025 also will be pivotal for ultra low cost carriers, such as Spirit Airlines, which is looking at a markedly higher amount of grounded aircraft.