TotalEnergies sees oil demand rising through 2040 as energy transition slows

French oil major TotalEnergies expects global oil demand to continue rising through 2040 before gradually declining, as political fragmentation and energy security concerns slow efforts to cut emissions and limit global warming, the company said in its annual energy outlook report on Tuesday.

The analysis marks an upward revision from last year's forecast, reflecting changes including U.S. President Donald Trump's partial rollback of green subsidies and resumption of liquefied natural gas plant licences, as well as lagging electric vehicle sales and ongoing coal plant installations in Asia.

The report outlines three scenarios: current trends, a moderately ambitious “momentum” scenario, and a “rupture” scenario aligned to the Paris Agreement.

"We can present this rupture scenario, but given the level of political fragmentation, the probability of its success is diminishing, even out of reach, because the international coordination required is not what we see today," said TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne at a press briefing. 

OIL DEMAND RISING UNTIL 2040

All three of TotalEnergies' scenarios have been revised upward from last year to project higher oil demand.     "We didn't want to present a peak oil demand year due to the conflict between my colleagues about which exact year in the 2030s it will hit and the political attention around this debate," Pouyanne said, though the report shows oil demand slightly rising until 2040 under current trends.      The world is now on track to consume 98 million barrels of oil per day in 2050, versus the 90 million bpd prediction for 2050 a year ago, according to the report.

Under Total’s momentum scenario, oil demand would be 79 million bpd in 2050, up from last year’s forecast of 70 million bpd.

The Paris-aligned scenario would see consumption fall to 55 million barrels per day in 2050 – a considerable rise from last year’s estimate of 44 million bpd.