TotalEnergies beats expectations for fourth-quarter profit, signals stronger 2025

French oil major TotalEnergies beat expectations for fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday as higher trading profits in the gas market helped it offset some of the impact of low oil prices and weak fuel demand.

Adjusted net income for the final three months of 2024 was $4.4 billion, down 15% from $5.2 billion a year previously but slightly higher than the third quarter's $4.1 billion. The results beat expectations for $4.2 billion, according to an analyst consensus compiled by LSEG.

The company said it expects higher gas prices, upstream production and power sales in early 2025. Its shares were up 1.3% at 0842 GMT.

CEO Patrick Pouyanne said at a press briefing that he expects the company to be able to continue investing in renewable energy in the U.S., and added that exports of U.S. LNG are set to practically double in the coming years.

The French firm is the U.S.'s largest LNG exporter with more than 10 million tons under contract.

Total announced a 7% increase in the 2024 dividend to 3.22 euros per share, and for 2025 confirmed share buybacks of $2 billion per quarter.

RBC analyst Biraj Borkhataria said Total's announced dividend growth was "higher than we anticipated", and added that the reported 8% gearing "should allay any concerns around debt levels".

Western oil majors are facing reduced economic activity and competition from new African and Asian refineries, which caused profit margins for converting crude oil into fuel products to collapse last year. The trend is expected to continue in 2025.

Total's European refining margin for the fourth quarter was $25.90 per metric ton — half the $50.10 realized in late 2023 — while crude oil prices were nearly $10 per barrel lower than the previous year.

Last week Shell, Chevron and ExxonMobil all reported fourth-quarter earnings hard hit by the downturn in refining margins.

Total was able to end the year on a higher note thanks to its integrated LNG division, where traders captured higher profits due to market volatility and boosted earnings by 35% to $1.4 billion.