Tariffs cast shadow on 2025 holiday shopping, spending slows

project44 released its annual State of Consumer Holiday Shopping Report, providing a detailed look at how U.S. shoppers are preparing for the 2025 holiday season. The survey of more than 2,000 consumers reveals how tariffs, tighter budgets, and shifting behaviors are reshaping when and how families plan to spend.

The report finds that tariffs are top of mind for holiday shoppers, with 80% worried that tariffs will increase prices. Additionally, 70% plan to purchase fewer gifts if tariffs increase the cost of goods. However, despite purchasing less, consumer expectations remain high, with 45% of shoppers saying they are unlikely to return to a retailer who misses a promised delivery date.

Additional key findings from the 2025 State of Consumer Holiday Shopping Report include:

• Shoppers are delaying purchases due to price uncertainty.
• Just 25% of consumers began shopping before October, compared to 35% in 2024.
• More shoppers say they will wait until October–December to begin purchases, reflecting a “wait-and-see” approach as they monitor the economy and look for Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals.
• Online shopping continues to dominate.
• More than half of holiday budgets are now allocated online.
• 80% of consumers plan to use online marketplaces this season.
• 56% are unwilling to pay extra for faster shipping.
• Sustainability is slipping as a purchase driver.
• 34% of consumers say sustainability only matters if it doesn’t raise costs.
• 34% say it has no impact on their purchasing decisions at all.

“These findings highlight critical shifts in consumer behavior that shippers need to take action and ensure that every delivery experience meets expectations,” said Brian Cooper, Chief Marketing Officer, project44. “The data is clear; retailers and brands might get fewer chances this season to win over new customers and strengthen loyalty. So, when those moments come, every experience has to hit the mark. There’s just no room for missteps.”

The 2025 State of Consumer Holiday Shopping Report is part of project44’s broader initiative to provide supply chain leaders with the intelligence needed to navigate shifting consumer expectations and economic pressures.