Stocks slide, yields up on ‘higher for longer’ rates view

Global stocks dipped on Tuesday, while bond yields and the dollar traded near multi-month highs, as investors reined in expectations for more big U.S. interest rate cuts ahead of U.S. elections.

An early set of quarterly earnings were positive, with shares of German software company SAP, U.S. carmaker General Motors, and conglomerate 3M Co rising after upbeat results.

But that was not enough to lift broader stock markets. U.S. stock futures pointed to another weaker start after Monday's drop in the benchmark indexes, while the MSCI All-World index fell 0.3%.

"We're getting very close to the U.S. election and the data in the U.S. has been strong. So there is a question about how much the Fed can do," said Peter Schaffrik, global macro strategist at RBC Capital Markets, referring to U.S. monetary policy easing.

A host of data signalling U.S. economic strength has thrown cold water over bets of another larger than usual rate cut, following the Fed's half-point reduction in September.

The chances of the Fed delivering a quarter-point cut at its Nov. 7 meeting have receded to 89% from near-certainty a week ago, according to CME's FedWatch tool, while there are virtually no bets on a 50 basis point (bp) cut.

Adding to the uncertainty is the looming U.S. election, where former Republican president Donald Trump and Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris are in a tight battle to win over some of the more competitive states ahead of the Nov. 5 voting day.

Trump's lead in online betting markets has aided the dollar's recent rise to a 2-1/2 month high as his proposed tariff and tax policies could mean stronger inflation and keep U.S. interest rates higher for longer.

The dollar index was just below that peak at 103.89.

Political and geopolitical uncertainty kept safe-haven gold pinned near record levels, up 0.5% at $2,732 an ounce.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose nearly 2 bps to 4.1997%, extending a sharp move higher and hitting their highest since late July. [US/]

Pepperstone strategist Michael Brown said he did not buy into the theory that the so-called "Trump trade" alone was behind the sell-off in Treasuries.

"Firstly, swing state polls have hardly moved in recent weeks, and in most cases still have Trump and Harris neck-and-neck, well within the margin of error. Extrapolating a definitive signal from these is a tough, if not impossible, ask," he said, adding that longer-term yields tend to respond more to shifts in long-term expectations for growth, rather than short-term politics.

ASIA TRADE

Investors also took some cash off the table in Japan, which holds an election on Sunday. Stocks, bonds and the yen have all fallen in tandem as polls have shown the possibility of the ruling coalition losing its majority.

Japan's Nikkei ended down 1.3% to touch its lowest since early October, while the yen hit 151 per dollar for the first time since July. [.T][JP/]

Besides the yen, foreign exchange markets steadied after a session of selling almost everything against the dollar.

The pound was just below $1.30, with traders wary as Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is due to speak at 1325 GMT and has recently suggested the central bank can move more aggressively to cut rates.

Some European Central Bank officials are scheduled to speak at the International Monetary Fund's annual meeting in Washington on Tuesday, with the IMF expected to update its global growth forecasts later in the day.

"I think (policymakers) will wait until after the U.S. election as they may need to calibrate," said Mike Kelly, head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments.

Oil prices also steadied and Brent crude futures traded at $74.86 a barrel, up 0.8% on the day. China's oil-demand growth is expected to remain weak in 2025, the head of the International Energy Agency said on Monday. [O/R]

(Reporting by Medha Singh and Dhara Ranasinghe in London and Tom Westbrook in Singapore; Editing by Jamie Freed, Angus MacSwan and Mark Potter)