Avocados will continue strong surge in 2025 and beyond

Avocado fervor could face some challenges in 2025 but exports likely to continue to grow.

Over the past two decades avocado fervor has washed over the globe like a massive dark green wave.

There could be some challenges in 2025, but leading agricultural economists don’t forecast the surge to dissipate next year or in the near future.

In fact, Gonzalo Salinas, research director at Rabobank, which boasts the largest food and agribusiness research group in the world, predicts world avocado exports will increase over the next five years and could hit a record 3.2 million tons by 2028-2029.

Avocados will continue to be the “talk of the town,” Salinas said in a recent industry address. “They will become the (world’s) most traded fruit by 2030.”

“If in 2014 there were 14 countries exporting at least 5,000 metric tons per season, in 2023 there were 23 countries, and it is expected that in 2030 there will be at least 30 countries,” he said.

“There is no country that could shadow Mexico’s dominance in the global avocado production. Peru, the second exporter, is expected to show a much lower growth in the coming seasons, as the rate of new plantations has declined in the past three years and most of the new plants are going to replace old orchards instead of increasing area. While imports from Colombia to the US had an important increase in 2024 (+119%) these two last countries only act as a counter seasonal supply that can benefit from low volumes in the Mexican off-season,” Salinas said.

Salinas kicked off the annual Global Avocado Summit in Santiago, Chile in late November with a presentation entitled “Analysis and Forecast of Global Avocado Exports.” The one-day event featured a full roster of speakers analyzing global avocado supply and demand.

UK/EU is recovering from a sluggish three-year period and it, along with United States, will continue to be the major consumption hubs worldwide. Salinas added there is a significant opportunity for added growth in China, Saudi Arabia, Eastern Europe and Sweden.

“Currently there are producing countries with already high per capita consumption levels such as Mexico, Chile, Australia, among others with more than 5 kg per person per year. There is potential for countries with intermediate levels of consumption - between 2-3 kg per person - that already know the fruit, and how to consume it, especially in Europe, to move to higher levels of consumption (closer to the global leaders). There is an important potential for countries with low consumption, but high population like Italy and Poland,” Salinas said. “And there are other potentials for consumption growth in the countries with low per capita consumption levels that might be unfamiliar to Hass avocados, or the fruit is new to them. Countries that might be important producers or new consumers like Peru, Brazil for Hass avocados, or countries in Southeast Asia like Thailand, Malaysia, India, among others.”

Tariff Issues?

One hurdle in the near term for the Mexico-United States avocado trade is the threat by U.S. President Donald Trump to impose 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico right after his January 20 inauguration unless Mexico increases control on the flow of illegal drugs and immigrants into the United States. The Mexican avocado industry fears price hikes at retail right when peak consumption occurs around the February Super Bowl.

Despite the possible trade squabble in the short term, other global avocado forecasters agreed with Salinas in the long term.

Late last year, the Hass Avocado Board hosted its Avocado Forum in Carlsbad, CA. The Forum helps identify what resources the industry is going to need to compete over the next five years.

Leading Mexican agricultural analyst Ramon Paz told the group he expects Mexican avocado imports to the United States to reach 3,154 million pounds, or 1.5 million tons by the 2029-2030 season.

Recent avocado data is eye-popping. Paz reported between 2015 and 2023, the Mexican avocado industry grew 81% in volume, 52% in harvested area and 19% in yield.

With more acreage becoming U.S. certified, Paz predicts the state of Jalisco’s production will rise from 367 million pounds in 2024-2025 to 452.5 million pounds in 2029-2030. And the states of Mexico and Nayarit combined production will skyrocket from 23 million pounds in 2025-2026 to 231 million pounds in 2029-2030.

The top avocado producing state of Michoacan will continue to churn the fruit out, with the 2,660 million pounds produced in 2024-2025 increasing to 3,081 million pounds in 2029-2030 - a 16% increase, Paz said.

Paz said Mexican avocado exports to the U.S. in 2024-2025 will hit 2,567 million pounds (a 10% increase from 2023-2024) and jump to 3,155 million pounds in 2029-2030.

Avocado Export Strategy

Mexican efforts, strategies, and investments will concentrate in further increasing consumption in the USA market while building the Avocados from Mexico® brand, Paz said while participation in other international markets will likely be limited and opportunistic. A North American (USA-Canada-Mexico) market is emerging and will likely converge in prices and commercial practices in a decade, he said.

c – the French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development — warned the Avocado Forum crowd that the United States is “too Mexicanized,” or dependent on Mexican fruit.

Signs of U.S. supply diversification are not there, he said. Calling the situation “too much dependency on Mexican fruits from a climate and political context.”

Imbert said a new version of the world production model is needed. He said climate change is impacting rain fed regions of Michoacan state affecting fruit sizing and resulting in some lower prices.

Plus, Imbert said Colombia has not become the production game changer as expected. The country’s growers are producing low yields in its “tropical mountain” climate and excessive rainfall has made efficient production systems difficult.

The supply diversification is crucial because growth prospects in the United States “are still enormous” with steady population growth including “overconsuming” Hispanics. In addition, avocado consumption in the United States’ East Coast population centers still lags significantly behind the West Coast.

Meanwhile across the Atlantic Ocean, the EU/UK markets are in “Olympic form,” Imbert said with 2025 avocado imports most likely reaching the 1 million metric ton mark for the first time. That figure will increase from the 965,000 million metric tons in 2023-2024. The EU/UK markets have 13 major suppliers with Peru tallying 38 percent of the total. Plus, Imbert said Israel and Morocco exports are increasing.

Japan, China and South Korea provide a very big growth prospect with 60 percent of the world population and only 6 percent of the world avocado trade, Imbert said. He acknowledged huge investments in promotion/consumer education are still needed for that region to bear fruit.

“My point of view, we have to take advantage of this unexpected delay of the ‘avolanche’ to work harder in Europe, Asia and in South America on the avocado promotion. And of course, to maintain the program in progress in the U.S.,” Imbert said.

“The prospects for (global) demand are still very good, even if the world market still rely almost only on the US/EU27+UK,” he said.

“In times of climate and political incertitude promotion is more than ever a key for better market stability and a safe bet,” Imbert said.