S&P Global: U.S. recession risk still elevated amid uncertain growth prospects

The probability of a recession starting within the next 12 months has moderated since the beginning of the year but remains elevated at 30%-35%, said S&P Global Ratings Economics today in "U.S. Business Cycle Barometer: Recession Risk Still Elevated Amid Uncertain Growth Prospects."

"Data from the key coincident indicators shows the current expansion is in its late cycle, indicating that any further short-run cyclical boost to growth is limited by the economy's underlying growth potential," said Satyam Panday, S&P Global Ratings Chief Economist, U.S. and Canada.

Meanwhile the principal leading indicators give mixed signals for near-term growth prospects, and the current expansion is likely to enter a period of slower-than-trend growth in the coming quarters.

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This report does not constitute a rating action.