S&P Global - U.S. Holiday 2025 Retail Sales Outlook: Retailers Wrapped In Caution

Global Ratings today published "U.S. Holiday 2025 Retail Sales Outlook: Retailers Wrapped In Caution," indicating it expects holiday sales (November-December) will grow 4% in 2025 from 2024. This is the same growth rate as last year.

"We believe price increases to offset tariffs will account for most of the sales growth, with minimal unit volume gains," said credit analyst Bea Chiem. "We expect holiday retail spending by consumers will remain relatively flat, which illustrates the challenging operating conditions for retailers and supports our negative ratings bias in the sector."

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