S&P Global: Resilient U.S. economy will bolster corporate credit

S&P Global Ratings today said a resilient U.S. economy will likely underpin steady growth of nonfinancial corporates this year—although weaker-than-expected macroeconomy, uncertainties around tariffs and trade, and geopolitical tensions remain downside risks. See the report titles “U.S. Corporate Credit Outlook 2026: Growth Holds, Fault Lines Remain”.

The world’s biggest economy is undergoing what is largely a jobless expansion. While consumer spending has remained robust in the aggregate, its growth looks set to slow amid a weakening job market, lingering sticker shock from higher inflation, and restrictive immigration policies. The intensifying K-shaped dynamics—in which income inequality continues to widen—will likely weigh on consumer-facing sectors.

Lending conditions remain broadly supportive, with bond spreads near the all-time lows set in late-2024. Nominal rates remain elevated, however. We expect mounting maturities through 2028 to add to refinancing pressure for lowest-rated borrowers.

AI-centric investments will continue to be an important growth driver. We expect global IT spending to grow 9% this year after a robust 12% in 2025, supported by continued AI infrastructure buildout and resilient software and IT services demand. Chipmakers and data center infrastructure and equipment providers stand to benefit. Meanwhile, the risk of overspending is rising, particularly given the risks and complexity of emerging technologies and the complex financing methods often being utilized.

Tariffs will likely stay elevated, and their effects on input costs, margins and profitability will continue trickling through. In the longer term, companies may need to further reconfigure their supply chain architecture given trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions.

The autos and chemicals sectors have the highest net negative bias, suggesting a gloomier ratings outlook. In autos, rating headroom has eroded for several issuers in the light-vehicle segment, where low volume growth will pressure OEMs’ and suppliers' profits. In chemicals, negative rating actions are accelerating across the rating scale. 47% of our ratings on investment-grade companies have a negative bias, driven by petrochemical companies, which tend to be larger and are grappling with unprecedented oversupply.