S&P Global Mobility | US plans for new truck tariffs on commercial vehicles

The announcement of a 25% tariff on medium and heavy-duty trucks has thrown the highly integrated North American commercial vehicle market into a state of confusion. While the tariffs are not yet officially in effect, S&P Global Mobility analysis shows the uncertainty alone is already causing significant economic damage, with automakers hitting the brakes on production and shifting manufacturing footprints in anticipation of the new policy. The lack of clarity from the administration on critical details is creating a chilling effect on an already fragile market.

Our latest analysis highlights several critical findings:

• North American Production is Plummeting: The uncertainty is a major contributor to a severe production downturn. We estimate that North American medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicle output fell approximately 30% year-over-year in the summer months. This follows a 22% year-over-year decline in the first quarter, with our forecasts for the second half of 2025 and 2026 now lowered.
• Manufacturing Shifts Point to a Preemptive Response: Automakers are not waiting for clarity. In June and July 2025, MHCV output in Mexico fell by more than 40% year-over-year, compared to a 20% drop in the US. This disparity indicates OEMs are already reallocating production to US plants to mitigate potential tariff impacts.
• Critical Questions Remain Unanswered, Fueling Instability: The industry is operating in an information vacuum. It remains unknown if the tariff will apply to the full value of a truck or only non-US value, whether it will "stack" with existing Section 232 tariffs, or which specific vehicle classes will be impacted. This lack of detail makes strategic planning nearly impossible.

This tariff threat is compounding existing market weaknesses at a time when truck fleets cannot absorb higher prices. The industry urgently requires clarity to halt the damage being done by policy uncertainty alone.