South Korea exports set for fastest rise in over 4 years amid AI boom

South Korea's exports likely rose at the fastest annualised pace in more than four years in January due to surging demand for artificial intelligence chips and favourable calendar effects, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

Exports from Asia's fourth-largest economy, a bellwether for global trade, were projected to have risen 29.9% from a year earlier, according to a median forecast of 11 economists.

That would be faster than the 13.3% rise in the previous month and the biggest year-on-year increase since November 2021.

"The surge in semiconductor exports is expected to continue for the time being on sharp price rises and supply shortages," said Park Sang-hyun, an economist at iM Securities in Seoul.

Exports have been rising since June on robust semiconductor shipments amid a global boom in AI investment, despite a hit from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs.

Trump said on Tuesday the U.S. and South Korea will work out a solution, when asked about his surprise announcement on Monday that he would increase tariffs on imports from the Asian ally to 25%, from the current 15% set under a trade deal reached last year.

In January, there were favourable calendar effects of 3-1/2 more working days than the same month last year. Monthly data for January and February are often distorted in South Korea due to working-day differences resulting from the timing of the Lunar New Year holidays.

In the first 20 days of this month, exports rose 14.9% as chip shipments jumped 70.2%, offsetting declines in auto and ship exports. By destination, exports to China rose 30.2%, while those to the U.S. climbed 19.3%.

South Korea's government this month raised its economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.0% from 1.8%, citing stronger chip demand, while the central bank also flagged upside risk to its projection of 1.8% and signalled it was done easing policy.

"We continue to expect semiconductor export growth to rise to around 70% year-on-year in 2026, versus 22% in 2025, led by the global AI capex cycle," said Kim Jin-wook, an economist at Citi.

Imports were projected to have risen 14.6% in January, after growing 4.6% in December. That would mark the biggest increase since September 2022.

The median forecast for the monthly trade balance stood at a surplus of $4.60 billion, narrowing from $12.17 billion in December, which was the biggest since September 2017.

South Korea is scheduled to report trade figures for January on Sunday, February 1 at 9 a.m. local time (0000 GMT).