Oil jumps to 10-month high as Saudi Arabia extends voluntary cuts – Rystad Energy Oil Market Note

Saudi Arabia announced earlier today that they will extend the 1 million bpd voluntary cuts until December 2023.

This is a clear indication that oil prices trump volumes for the Kingdom.

Russia also announced the extension of its voluntary export cuts of 300,000 bpd until the end of the year.

These bullish moves significantly tighten the global oil market and can only result in one thing: higher oil prices worldwide.

The decisions surprised oil markets, and prices reacted strongly and suddenly following the announcements.

ICE Brent front month jumped from $88.5 per barrel to over $90.5 per barrel, the highest price since November 2022.

We are now predicting global liquids demand will surpass supply by around 2.7 million bpd in the further quarter of this year

The big question is: Are the Saudis worried about global demand in the final quarter of 2023, particularly in China, so that they need to take preempted measures?

Chinese macroeconomic sentiment is a potential downside risk, but our latest mobility indicators do not show an imminent deceleration that could justify such a move by Saudi Arabia.

The impact these cuts will have on inflation and economic policy in the West is hard to predict, but higher oil prices will only increase the likelihood of more fiscal tightening, especially in the US, to curtail inflation.

Western leaders, wary of an oil price spike, could explore import adjustments or open diplomatic discussions to help mitigate the impact and tame inflation.

The extension of this longer cut until December implies a significant shift in our balances.

Moreover, this would lead to the highest semi-annual deficits since the second half of 2021 but with the added pressure of starting from much lower stock levels both for crude and products.