May 2022 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, rose 0.3% in May from April, rising after a one-month decline, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS). From May 2021 to May 2022 the index rose 2.6% compared to a decline of 2.0% from May 2019 to May 2021.

The level of for-hire freight shipments in May measured by the Freight TSI (140.1) was 1.3% below the all-time high level of 142.0 in August 2019 (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. 

The April index was revised to 139.7 from 140.2 in last month’s release.  February was revised down slightly.

BTS is withholding the scheduled release of the passenger and combined indexes for May. The passenger index for May is a statistical estimate of airline passenger travel and other components based on historical trends up to April 2022. The statistical estimate does not fully account for the rapidly changing impacts of the coronavirus on the historical trend. Air freight for May is also a statistical estimate. Since air freight makes up a smaller part of the freight index, the freight TSI is being released as scheduled with the air freight estimate included. The April passenger and combined indexes are available on the BTS website.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal movement, which enables month-to-month comparisons.

Analysis: The Freight TSI increased 0.3% in May from April due to seasonally adjusted increases in trucking, rail carloads, and rail intermodal, while air freight, water and pipeline declined.

The May increase came in the context of mostly positive results for several other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index grew by 0.2% in May, reflecting increases of 1.0% in utilities, and 1.3% in mining, while manufacturing was down 0.1%. Housing starts were down 14.4% while personal income increased by 0.5%.

The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was up 0.7 points to 56.1, indicating accelerating growth in manufacturing.

Although the May Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel and other components, the April index is now being released. The index increased 2.5% from March to April following a decrease of 1.4% in March. Seasonally adjusted air passenger, rail passenger and transit all grew.

The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level in March 2020 —the first month of the pandemic— for eleven months in a row but remains below its pre-pandemic level (February 2020) for the 26th consecutive month.

Trend: The May freight index increase was the eighth month-over-month increase in nine months and followed a decrease in April, for a total increase of 4.4% since August 2021. The May Freight TSI is 11.8% above the pandemic low in April 2020; it has increased in 17 of the 25 months since that low. The index is 1.3% below its record level of 142.0 set in August 2019 and has increased in 18 of the 33 months since that peak. It is at its second highest point since that record level.

Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in May 2022 (140.1) were 47.5% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (95.0). The May 2022 level was 1.3% below the historic peak reached in August 2019 (142.0) (Table 1A).

Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were up 2.1% in May compared to the end of 2021 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are up 11.1% in the five years from May 2017 and are up 24.0% in the 10 years from May 2012 (Table 5). 

Same month of previous year: May 2022 for-hire freight shipments were up 2.6% from May 2021 (Tables 4, 5).

The TSI has three seasonally-adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexe. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the June 2022 index is scheduled for August 10, 2022.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.