Laggard Ireland may face 26 billion euro EU climate bill, watchdogs warn

Ireland may have to pay EU compliance costs of between 8 billion euros and 26 billion euros ($8.4 billion-$27.2 billion) if it does not swiftly implement its emissions-cutting plans by 2030, the country's fiscal and climate watchdogs warned on Tuesday.

The estimate, equivalent to between 3% and 9% of Irish national income, far exceeds the most recent 2023 government estimate of 3.5 billion euros to 8.1 billion for falling short of the 2030 EU climate change targets.

The Irish fiscal and climate change advisory councils said the government could reduce the potential costs to between 3 billion and 12 billion euros if it follows through on plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions that have yet to be enacted.

"Allowing these costs to fall on the Irish state instead of meeting its agreed commitments to reduce emissions would be a colossal missed opportunity," the two independent bodies said in a joint report.

As part of the EU's legally binding target of a 55% cut in emissions by 2030, member states that fail to hit their goals are liable to effectively pay those that exceed their targets by purchasing their surplus emissions allowances.

Ireland, which currently has the healthiest public finances in Europe, is the furthest from its emissions targets among member states on a per capita basis, according to European Commission data.

While they fell 6.8% in 2023 versus 2022, Irish emissions are projected to be between 11% and 29% below 2018 levels by 2030 depending on how much of the government's plans are implemented, the Environmental Protection Agency says.

The two watchdogs said the wide range of their estimated costs relates to the differing potential paths for Ireland's emissions and the "highly uncertain" price of missing targets.

They said measures including upgrading Ireland's energy grid, speeding up the roll out of electric vehicles and supporting changes in farming practices could help avoid some of the currently inevitable costs.

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