Juntas will be biggest losers if they quit West African bloc, IMF says

If the military leaders of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso walk away from West Africa’s economic union, the biggest losers will be the nations themselves, the International Monetary Fund warned.

“Negative effects will mainly be felt through the three countries should they exit Ecowas,” IMF Africa Department Director Abebe Selassie told a media briefing Monday, referring to the Economic Community of West African States. “Leaving the bloc would see a lot more trade friction.”

The three last month announced their plan to withdraw from the 15-member regional organization, risking exclusion from a $702 billion market after the bloc pushed for their return to civilian rule.

Mali has suffered two coups since 2020, Burkina Faso had one in 2022 and Niger last July. All three have been under economic and diplomatic sanction by Ecowas to pressure the military to relinquish power. Mali and Burkina Faso were scheduled to hold elections this year.

“These countries are already landlocked, already facing quite a bit of transaction costs in terms of their trade with the rest of the world,” Selassie said. They “now risk facing even higher transaction costs, which would be detrimental to those countries,” he said.