Bab el-Mandeb: a second ‘chokepoint’ for global trade?

The past week has seen an escalation in the US-Iran war as the two sides battle for control of a critical waterway for global trade – the Strait of Hormuz.

The US has just completed its sixth consecutive night of attacks against targets in the Islamic Republic. US Central Command (Centcom) said the strikes were intended to “further degrade Iranian military capabilities”, while adding that its forces had boarded a vessel as part of its blockade of Iranian ports.

According to Iranian State media, the US had attacked civilian infrastructure, including bridges, a train station, and an airport.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) claimed they had retaliated by hitting US maritime surveillance radar sites in Oman, as well as targets in Kuwait and Bahrain, and attacking a US special operations command center in Syria.

Later on Friday (July 17), Jordan's military said it shot down three Iranian missiles, underlining there had been no casualties or damage reported.

Hormuz is the epicenter of the conflict, with a resolution seemingly as unattainable as ever, given that the US claims the Strait is currently open while Iran asserts that it is closed.

‘Gate of Tears’

However, there are growing fears that a second, critical maritime chokepoint of global trade could soon emerge – the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Situated between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula to the northeast and Eritrea and Djibouti in Africa to the west, at the southern tip of the Red Sea, the Strait is at its narrowest point, only 18 miles wide.

Its name literally means ‘Gate of Tears’ in Arabic, a reference to the notoriously treacherous sailing conditions often experienced through the waterway.

Bab el-Mandeb is a key transit route for oil shipments moving from the Persian Gulf through the Suez Canal to Europe, as well as for containerized cargo.

It first became prominent to the public eye in late 2023 when Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen began attacks using the channel, such actions being in support of Palestinians in Gaza and against Israel.

Over the next couple of years, the vast majority of container and bulk shipping lines will divert vessels around Africa to Europe rather than run the risk of them coming under fire from the Houthis in the vicinity of Bab el-Mandeb.

The re-routing of ships around southern Africa, via the Cape of Good Hope, has been costly, adding more than 3,000 nautical miles and roughly two weeks of sailing on the Asia–Northwest Europe route and a considerable increase in fuel bills and CO2 emissions.

Return to Suez

However, at the beginning of 2026, with an Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza, the threat from the Houthis receded significantly, raising hopes of a return, albeit cautious and gradual, of shipping to the Suez Canal. When the US/Israel-Iran war erupted on February 28, some of this momentum was lost, only to be restored shortly afterwards.

In a recent interview with French media, CMA CGM chairman and CEO Rodolphe Saadé revealed that around 60% of the ocean carrier's fleet had returned to transiting the Suez Canal.

Earlier this month, one of its major rivals, Danish group Maersk, resumed transit through the Suez Canal for its Asia-Mediterranean and Middle East-India-US East Coast services. And just this week, it announced the return of its Salalah/Oman-West Africa service via Suez.

'Iran Going All-Out'

Now the escalation in the US-Iran war is casting uncertainty over the outlook for transit via Suez.

Earlier this week, the IRGC warned that it could target “all other export corridors that benefit the US and its allies” in response to the US resuming its naval blockade of Hormuz to Iranian ships.

In a statement published by state-run news agency IRNA, the IRGC said: "Regional energy exports are either shared by all or denied to all.”

Writing in the Eurasia Review, Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg, assistant secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation, at the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC), noted that in its latest bid to escalate the conflict, “Iran has gone all-out. After closing the Strait of Hormuz, it threatened to go after other waterways in the region to stop energy exports. The escalation in Yemen is part of that plan.”

Mahan Air Incident

The reactivation of the Houthis threat to close Bab el-Mandeb followed an incident involving a flight operated by Mahan Air between Iran and Sanaa, in Yemen, which took place without the airline gaining permission from the Yemeni government — a basic requirement under international civil aviation rules in any other part of the world.

“Mahan Air is no ordinary carrier. It is owned by a private entity controlled by the Quds Force, the notorious arm of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Aluwaisheg explained. “It was instrumental in transporting weapons and military personnel, including terrorists, to, among others, the Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen. The airline is sanctioned by the US and EU. In addition, many countries, including GCC states, have banned the airline from using their airports or airspace.”

He continued: “The government of Yemen is among those to have barred Mahan Air. Yet the airline persisted in violating the government’s repeated orders to turn back. After government forces disabled Sanaa Airport, the flight’s original destination, it landed in another airport controlled by the Houthis.”

‘A Dreadful Shock’

Earlier this week, after the Mahan Air incident, the Houthis launched ballistic missiles against civilian targets in southern Saudi Arabia — in apparent violation of the four-year-old truce mediated by the UN.

A report by Iran's Press TV quoted a senior Houthi official who warned: “If the current situation aggravates, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz will be closed in an operational alliance. Oil prices would then skyrocket to $200 a barrel in a dreadful shock.”

Maersk's Closely Monitoring the Situation’

Asked whether the Houthis’ threat to close Bab el-Mandeb was serious enough for Maersk to consider pre-emptive action and re-route its services via the Suez Canal to the Cape again, a spokesperson told AJOT: “We continue to closely monitor the situation. At this point, there are no changes to Maersk's network, services, and routings, and we continue to operate based on the current security and operational conditions in the region.”

CMA CGM was also approached but declined to respond to questions from AJOT.

Oil Shipments via the Red Sea

According to Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, the importance of Bab el-Mandeb has increased specifically amid what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz.

“Saudi Arabia managed to re-route some of the (oil) volumes that used to cross via the Strait of Hormuz and go mostly to Asia and other markets. They started using a (1,200 kms-long) pipeline that runs to the Red Sea (to the port of Yanbu) for export via the Bab el-Mandeb,” he told TIME magazine.

If the Houthis did close the Strait, triggering serious disruption to international shipping once again, it is highly probable that the US and its allies, the UK and France, would intervene to protect vessels as they did in response to a previous threat – thus increasing the risk of further escalation.

The outlook for the maritime community operating in the Gulf region appears set to remain complex and uncertain for some time to come.