Japan’s Q1 GDP likely rose on firm exports

Japan's economy is expected to have grown for a second quarter in January-March, supported by recovering exports and solid domestic demand, although the full impact of the Iran war had yet to be felt, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

• Gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms likely expanded an annualised 1.7% in the first quarter, according to the median forecast of 17 economists, after a 1.3% expansion in October-December.

• Without annualisation, the January-March growth rate was estimated at 0.4%.

• Analysts said private consumption and capital investment remain relatively firm, with the Middle East tension appearing to have had a limited negative economic impact as of the first quarter.

• Junpei Fujita, a senior analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting, said the results were expected to confirm that Japan's economy continued its moderate recovery.

• "However, looking ahead, caution is warranted because downside pressure on the economy could intensify if negative effects such as higher crude oil prices and supply constraints emerge due to escalating tensions involving Iran," Fujita said.

• Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan's GDP, is expected to have grown 0.2%. Capital expenditure was seen growing 0.2%, easing from the previous quarter's 1.3% expansion.

• Net external demand, or exports minus imports, probably added 0.2 percentage points to the first-quarter GDP growth, after its contribution was flat in the fourth quarter.

• The indicator will be among factors the Bank of Japan will scrutinise as it decides whether to raise interest rates in June or hold off until later.

• The government will release the preliminary January-March GDP data on May 19 at 8:50 a.m. (2350 GMT on May 18).