Indonesia trade surplus less than forecast, inflation quickens

Indonesia's trade surplus widened in November to $2.66 billion, official data showed on Monday, but was less than expectations after exports of commodities such as coal, nickel and copper dropped, while inflation in December climbed to a 20-month high.

A Reuters poll had projected a $3.06 billion surplus in November after the country recorded a surplus of $2.39 billion in October.

Southeast Asia's biggest economy maintained an expanding trade surplus for the January to November 2025 period, with exports boosted earlier in the year as manufacturers rushed shipments to get ahead of U.S. tariffs introduced in August.

However, exports have been easing in recent months and fell 6.60% annually in November to reach $22.52 billion, compared with a 0.53% drop forecast by analysts polled by Reuters.

Shipments fell mainly due to the lower export value of top commodities such as coal, palm oil, nickel metals and copper, Statistics Indonesia said.

Imports in November were worth $19.86 billion, up 0.46% from a year earlier, compared with a 3.2% increase forecast in the poll.

"The trade surplus is expected to persist but gradually narrow as import growth is seen to outpace exports, in line with the government's increasingly pro-growth policy stance," Permata Bank economist Faisal Rachman said.

Indonesia has finalised free trade negotiations with the European Union and signed a free trade deal with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, as it seeks to strengthen markets outside the United States. Jakarta has also set a target to sign a U.S. tariff deal by the end of this month.

Meanwhile, annual inflation picked up to 2.92% in December, above analysts' median forecast of 2.73%, on higher prices of gold and some food items, as well as the impact of floods and landslides that hit distribution channels in northern Sumatra island.

December's inflation rate was the highest since April 2024, though it remained within the central bank's 1.5% to 3.5% target range.

Core inflation, which excludes government-controlled prices and volatile food prices, was at 2.38% in December, versus 2.40% expected in the poll.

Faisal said inflation was expected to remain within Bank Indonesia's target, allowing the central bank to maintain an accommodative monetary policy.