Indonesia March trade surplus, wider than expected, hits 4-month high

Indonesia reported on Monday a $4.33 billion trade surplus in March, more than expected and the widest in four months as shipments beat estimates on strong palm oil and nickel exports as well as a rush to beat the start date for U.S. tariffs.

A Reuters poll of analysts had expected a surplus of $2.64 billion in March. The March surplus was the largest since November 2024, according to LSEG data. 

Exports from the resource-rich country have rebounded from lows reached after the end of a commodity boom in 2022, but shipments could soon be affected by a dimming global growth outlook due to the trade war sparked by U.S. tariffs. 

Among the countries that U.S. President Donald Trump targeted for tariffs above 10%, Indonesia was hit with a 32% levy, which has been paused for 90 days.

Several Indonesian ministers have been in Washington since last week to try to negotiate a deal to avoid the tariffs, presenting a proposal that includes buying more American products to reduce the trade gap with the U.S.

Exports rose 3.16% on an annual basis in March to $23.25 billion, official data showed on Monday, compared with a 3.40% fall expected by economists polled by Reuters.

Shipments of palm oil surged nearly 41% last month from the same month in 2024 to $2.19 billion, while nickel metals exports rose 12% to $2.38 billion. They helped offset a drop in coal exports.

Total imports were worth $18.92 billion, the statistics bureau said, up 5.34% on a yearly basis, compared with the poll's prediction of a 6.6% rise.

Hosianna Situmorang, an economist with Bank Danamon, called March's surplus solid, bolstered by rising U.S.-bound exports.

"Exporters accelerated shipments ahead of Trump's reciprocal tariffs, causing heavy port congestion at Tanjung Priok, while freight bookings at Chinese ports plunged by 640–800K containers, signaling early spillover from trade tensions," she said, referring to Jakarta's main port.

Exports of electronics, footwear and knitted apparel to the U.S. grew more than 15% each on a yearly basis in the first quarter, the data showed. The three were Indonesia's biggest export products to the U.S.

The trade surplus with the U.S. also was the biggest contributor to Indonesia's overall surplus in January-March 2025, standing at $4.32 billion, up from $3.61 billion in the same period in 2024. Indonesia's overall trade surplus in the first quarter reached $10.92 billion.