India’s oil imports from Russia extend decline ahead of curbs

India’s imports of Russian oil dropped for a second month and are expected to slip even further as the key OPEC+ producer starts trimming exports in August to help balance the global market.

Daily volumes fell to 2.09 million barrels last month, down from 2.11 million barrels a day in June, according to Viktor Katona, the head of crude analysis at Kpler. Inbound shipments from Saudi Arabia also dipped, while Iraqi imports rose to a five-month high, preliminary data from the analytics firm show.

However, Russian imports are expected to rebound from October, with volumes potentially rising as high as 2.2 million barrels a day, Katona said. That would coincide with a seasonal demand boost and be a record based on Kpler data.

Russia pledged to reduce its crude exports by 500,000 barrels a day in August, while Saudi Arabia has extended supply cuts as the OPEC+ heavyweights seek to prop up oil prices. However, gains could present a problem for Indian refiners wary of breaching a price cap imposed on Russian flows.

India’s imports of Russia oil could drop to as low as 1.6 million barrels a day this month, according to Katona. That would be the lowest since January.

The Russian volumes imported in July included 70,000 barrels a day of the CPC grade from Kazakhstan, according to Kpler. Shipments of Russia’s flagship Urals climbed to a record 1.6 million barrels a day.