IBA’S latest carbon index forecasts aviation emissions by aircraft type in 2025

IBA has published its latest Aviation Carbon Emissions Index in partnership with KPMG. Its latest analysis uses IBA NetZero scenarios to forecast the likely spread of emissions across aircraft types in 2025 based on expected retirements and deliveries.

Aviation carbon emissions intelligence from IBA NetZero reveals that CO2 emissions from the commercial aviation industry averaged 142.25 grams of CO2 per-seat per-mile in September 2022, increasing by 0.2% month-on-month - the first month-on-month increase since February 2022. This represents a 1.3% reduction in CO2 intensity year-on-year.

The number of flights in September decreased by approximately 8.5% month-on-month resulting in a fall in total monthly passenger emissions from 59 to 54 million tonnes. However, total flights have increased by 17% year-on-year, tracking just 19% below the pre-pandemic levels of September 2019.

Chris Brown, Partner and Head of Strategy in Ireland, KPMG, shared his comments on developments in the EVTOL sector:

“Tailpipe CO2 emissions only contribute around 40% of the total airside climate forcing impact. That’s why we looked at the low hanging fruit in ground operations, including engine use in the taxi cycle in our recent thought leadership papers. We have also updated our ‘Air Taxi Readiness Index’ for 2022, highlighting the roles countries, lessors, and other players in smaller electric and hybrid aircraft helping to decarbonise the sector. Whilst our modelling suggests that only around 3% of all commercial aircraft energy needs will be met by electric solutions by 2050, this masks much higher penetration rates on some short-haul and regional routes. In our 2021 index, we foresaw both the entry into electric S/VTOL by existing lessors (think Avolon-e), as well as niche lessors drawn to this growing market as type and production certifications are granted.”

Which aircraft types will have the highest emissions share by 2025?

IBA used IBA NetZero to forecast the share of emissions by aircraft type in 2025. It combined the latest 6 months’ utilisation and global network activity with orderbooks and aircraft retirements from IBA Insight.

IBA’s projections show the Boeing 737-800, Airbus A320-200 and Boeing 777-300ER remain the highest absolute carbon emitters in 2025, but with their overall share reducing. Select new generation aircraft move up our rankings by 2025, including the Boeing 737 MAX 8, Airbus A321-200NX, and A321-200neo.

Finally, IBA calculated the projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in total emissions between 2022 to 2025 based on the forecast. The Airbus A321neo has the largest CAGR of almost 50%. The Airbus A321NXneo and the Boeing 737 MAX 8 follow with increases of almost 30% and the A320-200N at just under 20%.

Unsurprisingly, IBA expects emissions from previous generation narrowbodies to grow the least due to retirements, with the more niche Boeing 737-700 and Airbus A319-100 showing the smallest increases. Finally, the negative CAGR of the 777-200ER is due to retirements and the increase in new generation widebody deliveries.