Global trade grew $300 billion in the first half of 2025, led by US imports and EU exports

Global trade expanded by an estimated $300 billion in the first half of 2025, despite a slower pace of growth, according to the latest Global Trade Update released on 8 July by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

Global trade rose by about 1.5% in the first quarter, with growth expected to accelerate to 2% in the second quarter. Trade in services remained the main engine of annual growth, rising 9% over the last four quarters.

Price increases contributed to the overall rise in trade value. Prices for traded goods edged up in the first quarter and likely continued to rise in the second, while trade volumes grew by just 1%.

Developed economies regain lead in trade growth

Developed economies outpaced developing countries in the first quarter of 2025, reversing recent trends that had favoured the Global South. The shift was driven by a 14% surge in United States imports and a 6% jump in European Union exports.

In contrast, developing countries saw a 2% drop in imports. South-South trade stagnated overall, though Africa bucked the trend with exports up 5% and intraregional trade growing 16% year on year.

Global trade imbalances widen

Trade imbalances deepened during the last four quarters, with the US posting a larger deficit and China and the European Union recording growing surpluses.

Bilateral gaps also widened between the US and key partners, including China ($360 billion annual deficit), the EU ($276 billion) and Viet Nam ($116 billion).

Outlook uncertain as trade faces policy risks and geopolitical headwinds

The report warns that global trade faces mounting headwinds in the second half of 2025, amid persistent policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and signs of slowing global growth.

New US tariffs – including a 10% baseline rate and additional duties on steel and aluminum – have raised the risk of trade fragmentation. And while retaliatory measures have so far been limited, a further wave of unilateral actions could trigger escalation, spilling over to third-party countries and destabilizing supply chains.

Domestic subsidies and inward-looking industrial policies are also expected to intensify, particularly in strategic and high-tech sectors. These measures risk disrupting deeply integrated production networks, with uncertainty in one segment spilling over to others.

Still, signs of resilience remain. Freight indices have rebounded from early-2025 lows, regional integration is strengthening, and services trade may continue its robust growth.

UNCTAD says that continued resilience in the second half of 2025 will depend on “policy clarity, geoeconomic developments and supply chain adaptability.”