German exports up, production falls short of forecasts

German industrial production rose less than expected in April and economists said the outlook for Europe's largest economy remains weak, despite an unexpected increase in exports.

Industrial production rose by 0.4% in April compared with the previous month, the federal statistics office said on Tuesday. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a 0.5% rise.

It was the first monthly increase since the start of the Iran war, but that was no cause for optimism, Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, said.

"It is simply too little, and the broader picture still shows a German industry that has stagnated for the last four months," Brzeski added.

The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that production was 0.5% lower in the period from February to April than in the previous three months.

Weak leading indicators suggest that output will decline again in the coming months, contributing to a slight contraction of the German economy in the second quarter, Ralph Solveen, senior economist at Commerzbank, said.

After revision of provisional results, production decreased by 0.1% in March compared with February, instead of falling by 0.7%.

"While the manufacturing sector has been fairly resilient in March and April, we doubt that this will last," Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics, said.

German industrial orders fell by 3.8% in April, data showed on Monday, following a strong increase in March when companies brought forward orders amid fears of price increases due to the Iran war.

EXPORTS ON THE RISE

German exports rose unexpectedly by 0.9% in April compared with the previous month, separate data from the federal statistics office showed on Tuesday. The result compared with a forecast for a 0.5% decrease in a Reuters poll.

Imports rose by 1.2% on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis compared with March 2026.

As a result, the trade balance slightly narrowed to a surplus of €14.5 billion ($16.74 billion) in April from €14.7 billion in March.

Exports to European Union countries rose by 1.0% on the month and exports to countries outside the EU increased by 0.7%.

Exports to the United States increased by 1.8% on the month, but with the tariffs imposed by the U.S., exports were down 12.9% compared with April of 2025.

Imports from the U.S. rose by 7.6% on the month.

($1 = 0.8662 euros)