FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index softens but remains slightly positive in June

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for June stayed in positive territory in June, but it weakened to 0.95 from May’s 2.24 reading. Details matter, however, as core freight dynamics improved for trucking companies during June while higher financing costs and a slowing of diesel price decreases were substantial offsets.

FTR expects general improvement in market conditions for carriers, but the TCI could see both positive and negative readings in the coming months before the index turns consistently positive by the end of this year, according to FTR’s current forecast.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “Today’s market might feel as weak as it has been, but we continue to see a growing foundation for a recovery in financial conditions for trucking companies. Strengthening capacity utilization sets the stage for firmer freight rates starting late this year and accelerating somewhat in 2025. Although nothing approaching the likes of 2021 is on the horizon, carriers should be seeing considerably more favorable conditions by next spring.”

Details of the June TCI are found in the August issue of FTR’s Trucking Update, published on July 31. Additional commentary discusses how a recent Federal Reserve revision of industrial production data affected FTR’s historical estimates of truck loadings. The Trucking Update includes data and analysis on load volumes, the capacity environment, rates, and the economy.

The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market. These conditions are: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. The individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. Conversely, a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings in either direction suggest significant operating changes are likely.

To access charts suitable to accompany this press release: https://www.ftrintel.com/trucking-conditions-index

In addition to the monthly updates on trucking conditions, FTR offers a weekly Trucking Market Update on the State of Freight Podcast.