[Freightos Weekly Update] China shutdown continues, Corona, and China-US prices

Here’s the latest China-US container rates:

    •    China-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Daily) fell by 2% since last week to $1483/FEU. Rates are 25% behind last year’s prices for this week.
    •    China-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Daily) fell by 1% to $2831/FEU. This rate trails last year’s by 12%.
Commentary
Though the extension of the official Chinese New Year holiday in most locations was set to expire yesterday, many provinces and cities in China have extended the shutdown further, some even until March 1st. 
But highway and transportation closures, and mandatory 14-day quarantines for people returning home from strongly affected areas, mean that even in places no longer shut down, the return to normal at factories and ports will be slow.
Freightos.com’s marketplace data suggest that among US importers, coronavirus has intensified a trend that was started by the trade war: importers are increasingly looking for regional suppliers other than China. The share of searches for countries other than China has climbed to more than 17% so far this month, up from less than 8% a year ago (see chart below).
Freightos.com shipping experts advise importers to keep updated about the extended shutdown, expect possible delays, confirm ready dates directly with manufacturers once they’re back online and, if possible, try to delay orders until after the backlog clears.
In terms of rates, with minimal manufacturing and cargo to ship, demand has dipped below what was expected for post-CNY. Though rates for most lanes, including those to the US, have so far remained unchanged from their pre-holiday and pre-outbreak levels, amid uncertainty and flagging post-CNY demand prices have dropped 15% on Asia-Northern Europe lanes since the start of the month and carriers have continued blanking sailings across lanes in response.
Rates may start to fall on China-US lanes in the short term as the shutdown drags on. But when production does pick up in full force – possibly not until mid-March – the spiking demand and reduced number of ships in the region will push freight prices up, with some experts predicting a spike in backhaul rates as well. Massively reduced air cargo capacity will likely also lead to a spike in air rates.