FedEx shares slide as trade turbulence hits demand, profit forecast

FedEx shares fell on Wednesday after the logistics giant forecast current-quarter profit below expectations, pressured by U.S. tariffs and President Donald Trump's move to revoke duty-free status on certain consumer shipments from China.

Shares of FedEx were down 6% in premarket trade, while rival UPS fell about 1%. German peer DHL also dropped nearly 2%.

"The global demand environment remains volatile," said CEO Raj Subramaniam during an earnings webcast, as the company failed to provide full-year earnings and revenue forecasts, pointing to uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies.

FedEx, along with rival UPS, is seen as an economic bellwether due to its broad customer base across industries, giving it an early insight into shifts in demand.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, noted FedEx's inability to deliver an outlook for the year felt "quite telling."

"This may result in some consternation in the markets beyond just the fortunes of FedEx itself."

The Trump administration in April imposed a tariff rate of 145% on China that intensified a global trade war, before reducing it to 30% in May. With FedEx having more exposure to China than UPS, executives said they expect tariff policies to continue weighing on the U.S.-China air trade transit.

The biggest hit is from the Trump administration ending duty-free status for direct-to-consumer shipments — valued at less than $800 — from China-linked bargain sellers like Temu and Shein, FedEx Chief Customer Officer Brie Carere said. "FedEx is like the economy's Fitbit. Express shows business demand, Ground tracks e-commerce, and Freight reflects industrial strength. Right now, all three are looking sluggish," said Michael Ashley Schulman, partner at Running Point Capital Advisors.

The company's dour outlook overshadowed a better-than-expected profit for the fourth quarter that ended May 31, as cost cuts and improved export volumes helped push operating margins higher.

FedEx's "cost cutting drive is continuing, but it's clear that it'll face more challenges ahead amid ongoing trade unpredictably," said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown.