US agricultural exports/imports threatened by Trump trade actions

U.S. President Donald Trump slapped 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada on Tuesday and doubled duties on Chinese goods to 20%, triggering retaliation and threats of further countermeasures by the top importers of U.S. farm products.

Ottawa responded with 25% tariffs on more than $20 billion in U.S. imports while Beijing said it would impose additional tariffs of 10% to 15% on agricultural products starting next week. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum also vowed retaliation and said she would announce Mexico's response on Sunday.

U.S. consumers could see prices rise for foodstuffs, from meat and dairy products to avocados and fresh fruits and vegetables as a result of tariffs, economists have said.

Retaliation from China, Canada and Mexico would hurt the $191 billion U.S. agricultural export sector. They are the top three markets for American farm products and imported a total of $91 billion in U.S. agricultural goods and related products in 2024.

Retaliatory tariffs during Trump's first term resulted in around $27 billion in lost U.S. agricultural exports, including $25.7 billion in sales to China, according to Rabobank analysts.

U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS

Soybeans, the top U.S. farm export by value, as well as corn, wheat and meat exports are vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs.

SOYBEANS

Exports totaled $24.5 billion in 2024, down from $27.7 billion in 2023 and a record of nearly $34.4 billion in 2022, according to U.S. Census Bureau trade data.

Exports to top market China totaled $12.8 billion in 2024, down from $15.1 billion in 2023 and a record $17.9 billion in 2022.

Trade tensions with Beijing in 2018 saw total U.S. soybean exports drop to the lowest in nine years, with shipments to China falling 74% from the prior year.

Value of U.S. soybean exports in 2024:

China: $12.8 billion

Mexico: $2.3 billion

Indonesia: $1.3 billion

CORN

U.S. corn exports to all destinations in 2024 rose to $13.9 billion in 2024, up from a three-year low of $13.1 billion in 2023 and below record sales of $18.6 billion in 2021, Census data showed.

Total 2024 exports, by value, were up 6% from the prior year as higher shipments to major importers Mexico, Japan, Colombia and South Korea offset an 80% drop in exports to China, due to competition from other global suppliers.

Value of top three U.S. corn export markets in 2024:

Mexico: $5.6 billion

Japan: $2.8 billion

Colombia: $1.6 billion

WHEAT

U.S. wheat exports to all global buyers in 2024 were down 2%, at $5.9 billion, Census data showed, amid pressure from cheaper Russian supplies.

Value of top three U.S. wheat export markets in 2024:

Mexico: $1.05 billion

Philippines: $735.7 million

Japan: $582.8 million

BEEF

The United States exported nearly $10.5 billion in beef and beef products in 2024, Census data showed, a 5% increase from 2023 as tight domestic supplies raised beef prices.

Value of top three U.S. beef export markets in 2024:

South Korea: $2.2 billion

Japan: $1.9 billion

China: $1.6 billion

PORK

U.S. pork and pork product exports totaled more than $8.6 billion in 2024, Census data showed, up 6% from the prior year as consumers looked for cheaper alternatives to higher-priced beef and as domestic hog supplies shrank.

Value of top three U.S. pork export markets in 2024:

Mexico: $2.6 billion

Japan: $1.4 billion

China: $1.1 billion

U.S. AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS

The U.S. imported a record $214.1 billion worth of agricultural products from suppliers around the world in 2024, up 9% from a year earlier, Census data showed.

Top agricultural products imported into the U.S. in 2024, by value:

* Baked goods, pasta, cereals: $14.9 billion

* Processed fruit and vegetables: $13.6 billion

* Fresh vegetables: $13.4 billion

* Fresh fruit and berries: $13.4 billion

* Vegetable oils: $12.6 billion

* Beef products: $11.7 billion

* Coffee: $6.6 billion

* Sugars and sweeteners: $5.4 billion

* Dairy products: $5.4 billion

* Chocolate and cocoa products: $4.8 billion