EIA revises forecast for 2025 U.S. natural gas prices, leaves other forecasts largely unchanged

Feb 11, 2025

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published its February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), revising its forecast for 2025 average U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot prices upward following a cold end to January.

U.S. energy market indicators	2024	2025	2026
Brent crude oil spot price (dollars per barrel)	$81	$74	$66
Retail gasoline price (dollars per gallon)	$3.30	$3.20	$3.10
U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day)	13.2	13.6	13.7
Natural gas price at Henry Hub (dollars per million British thermal units)	$2.20	$3.80	$4.20
U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports (billion cubic feet per day)	12	14	16
Shares of U.S. electricity generation
Natural gas	43%	40%	39%
Coal	16%	16%	15%
Renewables	23%	25%	27%
Nuclear	19%	19%	19%
U.S. GDP (percentage change)	2.8%	2.1%	2.0%
U.S. CO₂ emissions (billion metric tons)	4.8	4.8	4.8
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2025

Some key highlights from the January STEO include:

Natural gas prices: Cold weather at the end of January increased demand for space heating and contributed to a 12% increase in U.S. natural gas consumption over the previous five-year average for the month. Higher natural gas consumption led to above-average inventory withdrawals, and EIA now expects the benchmark Henry Hub spot price to average $3.80 per million British thermal units in 2025, about 20% higher than previously forecast.
Crude oil production and prices: EIA continues to expect growth in global oil production and significant decreases in crude oil prices through 2026. EIA completed its January forecasts before additional sanctions against Russia’s oil and shipping sectors were announced, which created additional uncertainty in outlooks for crude oil supply. EIA does not expect the sanctions to have significant impact on global oil production or prices, although trade flows could be affected.
U.S. refinery operations: EIA expects U.S. production of refined petroleum products to decrease by about 190,000 barrels per day in 2025 and by 180,000 barrels per day in 2026 as two refineries close operations. LyondellBasell began closing its Houston refinery on January 27 and Phillips 66 plans to close its Los Angeles refinery at the end of the year. EIA expects that in 2026, the United States will begin importing more gasoline and jet fuel than it exports while remaining a net exporter of distillate fuel oil.
Residential electricity prices: EIA forecasts that retail electricity prices for the U.S. residential sector will grow by 2% in 2025, which would be the smallest annual increase in residential electricity prices since 2020. The modest price increase, similar to the expected rate of inflation growth, reflects relatively low natural gas prices over the past year offset by continuing expenses for improvements in grid infrastructure.
U.S. coal exports: EIA expects the United States to export about 100 million short tons of coal in both 2025 and 2026, about 2% less than EIA’s January forecast. EIA expects that China’s tariffs against the United States will affect U.S. coal exports, but exporters are likely to find customers in other markets, limiting the tariff’s impact.

The full February 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook is available on the EIA website.

This press release and the product described in it were prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA’s data, analysis, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government. The views in the product and this press release therefore should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department of Energy or other federal agencies.