Deforestation in Brazil’s Cerrado region hurts potential soybean output

Clearing land for agricultural use in Brazil's Cerrado tropical savanna region causes drier weather conditions that ultimately hurt soybean yields, according to the findings of a new study released on Monday.

The study, which was shared first with Reuters, argues that a fall in yields drives farmers to clear even more land, further accelerating degradation of Brazil's second-largest biome after the Amazon and hampering conservation efforts. 

"Our new analysis found that when farmers clear native vegetation for soy, the climate impacts extend far beyond the cleared plots," Zero Carbon Analytics said in a statement detailing the main findings of the research group's study. 

Brazil's Cerrado region occupies more than 2 million square kilometers (772,204 square miles), about 23% of the South American country's territory.  

The region would have produced an additional $9.4 billion of soy – nearly 8% of its soy output in the 10 years covered by the study - if land there had not been cleared for soy since 2008.

Zero Carbon Analytics looked at soy production, yields, export and price data from 840 Cerrado municipalities between 2013 and 2023, as well as rainfall and aridity data.

However, according to data from Brazilian crop agency Conab going back to 2008-2009, Brazil's average soy yields showed a tendency to rise. Thanks to the use of new technology including GMO seeds and better farm inputs, it grew by nearly 38% to 3.62 metric tons per hectare in 2024-2025. 

"Our analysis isn't denying that production has increased," said Joanne Bentley-McKune, the author of the study, which was peer-reviewed by an economist. "What it's showing is that production increases in spite of climate losses." 

The difference between soy output and what could have been produced - estimated at around 34 million tons - due to deforestation in the Cerrado from 2013-2023 shows "the gap between what was achieved and what could have been achieved if we had these technological gains without that climate disruption," Bentley-McKune said.

Brazil, the world's biggest soy producer and exporter and a key soy supplier to China, is expected to harvest close to 178 million tons in the current season.

(Reporting by Ana Mano; Editing by Paul Simao)