CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor’s October data shows ‘continued momentum’ going into holiday season

Retail sales bounced back in October, showing both monthly and year-over-year gains heading into the holiday shopping season, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released today by the National Retail Federation.

“Retail sales grew in October as consumers geared up for the holiday season,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Recent economic data has been mixed, yet consumer spending remains solid — supported by wage growth outpacing inflation, historically low unemployment, and wealth effects from strong stock market valuations. These factors point to continued momentum heading into the holidays as consumers focus on family, friends and finding value to make their budgets go further.”

Total retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, were up 0.6% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 5% unadjusted year over year in October, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with a decrease of 0.66% month over month and an increase of 5.42% year over year in September.

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations) was also up 0.6% month over month in September and up 4.89% year over year. That compared with a decrease of 0.49% month over month and an increase of 5.72% year over year in September.

Total sales were up 5.11% year over year for the first 10 months of the year and core sales were up 5.28%.

The October results come as NRF is forecasting that 2025 holiday sales will increase between 3.7% and 4.2% compared with 2024 to just over $1 trillion.

Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.

October sales were up in all but two of nine categories on a yearly basis, led by digital products, clothing store and sporting goods stores, and were also up in all but two categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:

• Digital products (such as electronic books and games) were up 2.02% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 22.39% year over year unadjusted.

• Clothing and accessories stores were up 1.42% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 7.89% year over year unadjusted.

• Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were up 0.09% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 7.19% year over year unadjusted.

• General merchandise stores were up 0.58% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 6.99% year over year unadjusted.

• Electronics and appliance stores were up 0.13% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 6.58% year over year unadjusted.

• Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.59% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 4.08% year over year unadjusted.

• Health and personal care stores were up 0.58% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 1.9% year over year unadjusted.

• Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 0.08% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 1.7% year over year unadjusted.

• Building and garden supply stores were down 0.81% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 8.52% year over year unadjusted.