CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor’s December data shows strong holiday season spending

Retail sales saw strong growth in December, putting holiday season results in line with the National Retail Federation’s forecast for record spending, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released today by NRF.

“December Retail Monitor data saw a sharp surge in growth as consumers continued prioritizing holiday spending on family and friends,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Continued economic momentum helped land 2025 holiday sales near the top of NRF’s forecast, reaffirming that consumers remain on solid footing.”

Based on Retail Monitor data, 2025 holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 grew 4.1%. That compares with NRF’s forecast that holiday sales would increase between 3.7% and 4.2% from the same period in 2024 to just over $1 trillion. The forecast is based on U.S. Census Bureau data, but Census numbers for December have not yet been released.

Total retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, were up 1.26% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 3.54% unadjusted year over year in December, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with increases of 0.12% month over month and 4.53% year over year in November.

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to auto dealers and gas stations) was up 1.6% month over month in December and up 3.58% year over year. That compared with a slight decrease of 0.04% month over month and an increase of 4.66% year over year in November.

A late Thanksgiving pushed Cyber Monday into December in 2025, so an additional busy day of holiday spending is included in December’s data. December’s numbers brought total 2025 sales as calculated by the Retail Monitor to an increase of 4.93% over 2024 and core sales to an increase of 5.08%.

Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.

December sales were up in six out of nine categories on a yearly basis, led by clothing stores, sporting goods stores and digital products and were up across the board on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:

• Clothing and accessories stores were up 2.05% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 6.11% year over year unadjusted.

• Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were up 3.52% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 5.16% year over year unadjusted.

• Digital products (such as electronic books and games) were up 0.98% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 3.6% year over year unadjusted.

• General merchandise stores were up 2.9% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 3.42% year over year unadjusted.

• Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.33% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 2.85% year over year unadjusted.

• Health and personal care stores were up 1.92% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 2.5% year over year unadjusted.

• Electronics and appliance stores were up 2.28% month over month seasonally adjusted but down 0.09% year over year unadjusted.

• Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.33% month over month seasonally adjusted but down 0.82% year over year unadjusted.

• Building and garden supply stores were up 1.11% month over month seasonally adjusted but down 5.3% year over year unadjusted.