CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor shows sales grew in March

Retail sales rose again in March as consumers received higher-than-usual tax refunds that made up for increased gasoline prices, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released today by NRF.

“Retail sales grew for a sixth consecutive month in March as the first wave of tax refunds offset higher gas prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Despite record low consumer sentiment and the highest inflation rate in two years, consumers continued to spend on household priorities. As consumers focus on costs, retailers remain laser-focused on keeping prices competitive and affordable.”

Total retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 6.59% unadjusted year over year in March, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with increases of 0.28% month over month and 6.24% year over year in February.

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to auto dealers and gas stations) was up 0.41% month over month in March and up 7.05% year over year. That compared with increases of 0.27% month over month and 5.87% year over year in February.

Total sales were up 6.18% year over year during the first quarter, and core sales were up 6.14%.

The numbers come as the IRS says 2026 tax refunds averaged $3,521 as of late March, up 11.1% from 2025 following changes in tax law passed last year.

Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.

March sales were up in all but one of nine categories on a yearly basis, led by health and personal care stores, clothing stores and sporting goods stores, and were up in all but two categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:

• Health and personal care stores were up 0.51% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 12.25% year over year unadjusted.
• Clothing and accessories stores were up 0.57% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 10.89% year over year unadjusted.
• Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were up 0.4% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 10.88% year over year unadjusted.
• Digital products (such as electronic books and games) were up 1.42% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 9.39% year over year unadjusted.
• General merchandise stores were up 0.38% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 8.77% year over year unadjusted.
• Electronics and appliance stores were up 0.06% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 7.67% year over year unadjusted.
• Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.39% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 3.78% year over year unadjusted.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 0.11% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 3.54% year over year unadjusted.
• Building and garden supply stores were down 0.08% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 0.47% year over year unadjusted.