CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor shows retail sales declined monthly in September but still grew year over year

Retail sales saw a slight month-over-month drop in September but consumers continued to spend more than last year as interest rates and inflation fell and employment rose, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released today by the National Retail Federation.

“After seven consecutive months of gains, consumers pulled back a bit in September, which is historically a soft month for retail sales,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Due to geopolitical tensions, uncertainty regarding election outcomes, anticipation of the port strike and lingering inflation in services, shoppers showed caution. However, year-over-year gains showed consumers were still spending on household priorities.”

Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were down 0.32% seasonally adjusted month over month but up 0.55% unadjusted year over year in September, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with increases of 0.45% month over month and 2.11% year over year in August.

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobiles dealers and gasoline stations) was down 0.28% month over month in September but up 0.94% year over year. That compared with increases of 0.17% month over month and 1.93% year over year in August.

The month-over-month decline was the first since January for both total and core sales and only the second since the Retail Monitor began tracking sales in October 2022. Total sales were up 1.91% year over year for the first nine months of 2024 and core sales were up 2.18%.

Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.

September sales were up in five out of nine retail categories on a yearly basis, led by online sales, clothing and accessories stores and health and personal care stores. Sales were up in three categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:

• Online and other non-store sales were up 1.59% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 15.21% year over year unadjusted.

• Clothing and accessories stores were up 1.06% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 10.31% year over year unadjusted.

• Health and personal care stores were up 0.04% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 4.82% year over year unadjusted.

• General merchandise stores were down 0.1% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 2.09% year over year unadjusted.

• Grocery and beverage stores were down 0.1% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 0.42% year over year unadjusted.

• Electronics and appliance stores were down 0.6% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 1.63% year over year unadjusted.

• Building and garden supply stores were down 1.82% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 4.25% year over year unadjusted.

• Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 1.5% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 4.8% year over year unadjusted.

• Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were down 1.29% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 9.46% year over year unadjusted.