CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor shows continued sales growth but less stocking up ahead of tariffs

Retail sales continued to grow in May even though consumers slowed down on stocking up ahead of tariffs, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released by the National Retail Federation.

“The data for May indicates that the pull-forward in consumer demand ahead of tariffs is likely dissipating,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “While momentum remains, the nature of consumer spending is shifting as economic uncertainty increases. Consumer fundamentals haven’t been damaged yet, and a slowing-but-still-growing job market is supporting household priorities ahead of any meaningful price increases in the coming months.”

Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 0.49% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 4.44% unadjusted year over year in May, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with increases of 0.72% month over month and 6.76% year over year in April.

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations) was up 0.23% month over month in May and up 4.2% year over year. That compared with increases of 0.9% month over month and 7.11% year over year in April.

Total sales were up 4.95% year over year for the first five months of the year and core sales were up 5.24%.

Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.

May sales were up in seven out of nine categories on a yearly basis, led by digital products, sporting goods stores and general merchandise stores, and were up in six categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:

• Digital products were up 1.81% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 28.04% year over year unadjusted.
• Sporting goods, hobby, music and bookstores were up 0.42% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 8.21% year over year unadjusted.
• General merchandise stores were up 0.4% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 4.63% year over year unadjusted.
• Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.46% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 4.53% year over year unadjusted.
• Health and personal care stores were up 0.06% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 3.85% year over year unadjusted.
• Clothing and accessories stores were up 0.67% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 3.21% year over year unadjusted.
• Electronics and appliance stores were down 1.98% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 2.58% year over year unadjusted.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 0.24% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 0.1% year over year unadjusted.
• Building and garden supply stores were down 2.3% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 7.31% year over year unadjusted.