China’s 2025 record export surge expected to slow in December

China's record run of exports, driven by diversification in shipment destinations, is expected to have slowed in the final month of 2025, and the outlook for the coming year depends on manufacturers' ability to expand further into new markets.

Beijing's resilience to renewed tariff tensions since President Donald Trump returned to the White House last January has emboldened Chinese firms to shift their focus to Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America to offset U.S. duties, despite resistance from import markets concerned about Chinese overcapacity. 

CHINA-ECONOMY/TRADE

Outbound shipments were expected to have risen 3.0% in value terms year-on-year, according to the median forecast of 34 economists in a Reuters poll. That was down from a 5.9% increase in November from a high base in December 2024 when firms front-loaded U.S.-bound orders ahead of Trump's inauguration.

CHINA'S FIRST $1 TRILLION TRADE SURPLUS

After China for the first time posted a $1 trillion trade surplus in November, economists were divided over whether Chinese firms had managed to sustain their push into new markets last month. Huatai Securities had forecast growth of 6.5%, the highest reading, while economists at China's top-ranking Peking University projected a 3.7% decline, the lowest forecast. 

The Economist Intelligence Unit, Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan's forecasts hovered at 4.1%, 4.0% and 3.7%, respectively, while Nomura and Citigroup were both more downcast at 2.0%.

Imports likely grew 0.9%, down from 1.9% a month prior, as a persistent property sector downturn, job insecurity, and a fading consumer-focused stimulus subdue domestic demand. The data will be released on Wednesday.

Economists expect China to continue gaining global market share next year, helped by Chinese firms setting up overseas production hubs that provide lower‑tariff access to the United States and the European Union, as well as by strong demand for lower‑grade chips and other electronics.

The International Monetary Fund estimates exports added 1.1 percentage points to China's forecast 5% growth last year and accounted for 30% of global growth, with that share expected to remain around one‑third of the global total over the next few years.

China's December trade surplus is forecast at $113.6 billion. If the pollsters are right, export monthly surpluses  exceeded $100 billion eight times last year, up from just twice in 2024, underscore that Trump has done little to dent China's trade with the wider world even if he has curbed U.S.-bound shipments.

TRUMP'S WORLD IMPACT ON CHINA TRADE?

China in October overtook the U.S. as Germany's largest trading partner.

The European Union's largest economy is, however, considering steps to reduce its reliance on China, the world's second-largest economy, after its curbs on rare earth exports left German industry exposed to supply chain disruption.

Beijing, however, has shown signs of recognising it must moderate its industrial exports if it is to sustain its success.

Last week, it scrapped subsidy-like export tax rebates for its solar industry, a long-standing point of friction with EU states.

Lawmakers last month passed revisions to the Foreign Trade Law after two, rather than the usual three readings, in a signal to members of a major trans‑Pacific trade pact that China is prepared to shift from industrial subsidies and towards freer, more open trade.

Despite the year-long truce on tariffs that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping struck in late October, U.S. duties of 47.5% on Chinese goods are well above the roughly 35% level analysts say enables Chinese firms to export to the U.S. at a profit.